RKLB Stock Forecast & Price Target

Rocket Lab is supported by a differentiated, vertically integrated model that combines launch services, spacecraft, and expanding Space Systems revenue, with Space Systems already contributing more than 66% of total revenue. Its 97 successful launches, including 21 in FY25 and 18 YTD with 100% mission success, reinforce a strong execution record, while Neutron’s ~13,000 kg payload capacity and $50M-$55M expected ASP could materially improve unit economics versus Electron and Haste. Large contract wins such as the $515M SDA Tranche 2 award, the $805M SDA Tranche 3 opportunity, and the planned Iridium acquisition add scale, diversification, and potentially stronger recurring revenue and margins.

Rocket Lab is facing a more challenging fundamental backdrop because the inaugural Neutron launch has slipped into 2027 after defects were found in a first-stage tank component, delaying the company’s ability to convert that program into revenue and likely pushing follow-on launches further out. That setback reduces modeled launch cadence, trims FY27 revenue to $1,186.3M from $1,299.3M, and creates a further FY28 revenue hit, while also implying higher costs and continued negative gross margin on early launches. The outlook is also weighed down by execution and competitive risk, inconsistent demand, reliance on government contracts, and broader budget pressure that could affect defense spending and short-cycle services.